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Who awaits the Premiership in Kiev?

Кого ждёт премьерское кресло в Киеве?

Perhaps from abroad is a little difficult to assess the political situation in Ukraine. Though Ukraine is not particularly seen that the same is happening in government. All have become accustomed to the words and statements of political leaders have absolutely nothing to say. Need to put together a huge mass of facts to put at least for myself, at least the subjective picture.

And the situation looks very interesting. First of all, Ukraine is a relatively young country that was just emerging new national layer of politicians and businessmen. In this case, the power of “oligarchs”, “raised” their capital “predatory accumulation”, the power “elite” who are “grown” in Frank pledge and the right of the strong, the power of “sixes” and the corrupt officials are still strong. At the same time, people are just beginning to understand that something still depends…

There is another factor. Ukraine -“interesting” card in both economic and political dimension of world politics. Here is the intersection of the interests of the Rothschilds and the Rockefellers, the Europeans, Americans and Putin, the Muslim world, China… In any case, Ukraine is important to all as “neutral” country that “needs” to have a relationship and to be a weighty argument that if the world “balance” will be seriously violated.

Although, there is also the interest of the Eastern European “bloc”, which was able to grow independent of political elites, and tries to defend its interests in the fight against “global centers”. Ukraine – the kernel, which can significantly strengthen such a unit, eventually becoming head of its.

All of this is behind-the-scenes game, designed not for one year. And the main thing for these “players” in Ukraine – its stability (power) and economically weakened, enabling “time” to gain a foothold in it until the advent of the new political elite (Patriotic). But a major factor is the people. Yes, he hasn’t yet recovered from the “Sovietism” and “Holy faith” in the power. But, “dropping” the two powers, where he is already closely examining the situation today, analyzing not only internal but also external factors.

And here “found a scythe against a stone”. The preservation of the “letter of the law” has allowed to save it in Ukraine a major impact of the oligarchs (sometimes true, and very Patriotic). Reform “stalled”, the fight against corruption has stalled (bees difficult to fight against honey). New “elite” have not gained sufficient weight. Very strong personal relationship. All this has led to the fact that those policies, which “rendered” the ridge of power “Maidan, was too dependent, too weak and too indecisive. Many of them grew up in the bowels of the old system, in the system of values and coordinates. They are not able to “put three friends” for ALWAYS three friends can tell such for what I will plant and their…

All attempts of Yatsenyuk “chair sit”, “eat fish”, and “the boy to stay” (well, type). only worsened the situation. Yes, like the Agreement on Association “opened the doors” to investors in Ukraine, and Ukrainian producers – in Europe (if anyone knows what this contract primarily provides the ability to produce products conforming to European standards, which does not require further certification in the EU). Yes, the decentralization of power has opened wide opportunities for the regions. Yes, the transition to market relations opens the way to business. But… the Fight support the fight against corruption (“a candle burned” so that not to die out), war and bureaucracy for investors poured a bucket of cold water. The instability of the banking system and high interest rates not only do not contribute to the development of domestic business, but also kill the one that is still there. “The financial burden” on the population became very painful for many. And no end in sight…

In such a situation, the people and investors are starting to murmur… is There a chance for Yatsenyuk to stay “in the chair”? Probably not… Spontaneous attempt of the Parliament of Ukraine (or rather, the oligarchs) just “throw” the Prime Minister, stumbled upon a hard confrontation with the “donors” of Ukraine, their desire for “stability” in the country. And while Yatsenyuk is not satisfied with them, many of the Ministers already quite progressive, and complete reformatting of the Cabinet, they didn’t want.

So what can we expect from Ukraine? Now the interests of “donors” and people of Ukraine are the same. Everyone wants to reduce dependence on Russia (with Putin’s unpredictable politics). Ukraine is considered as a major platform for investment that is beneficial and Ukraine itself. And one, and second I want to accelerate reforms, fight corruption and stability the responsible authorities.

Poroshenko fairly well understood “requests” of people and “donors”. And although he himself is not an angel, he is trying to “keep up with the interests” of the parties. Of course, he doesn’t have the guts to openly confront the oligarchs. “Rip” their corruption and he is “instructed” Saakashvili. And nothing to lose, and the people love him, and what Poroshenko claims for the words of Misha?

All is good, but the “successes” of the government was untenable. And here POPs up an “interesting” option. To appoint the Prime Minister Jaresko. She is the Minister of Finance. She was an American citizen. So – she opened the door in Washington and the IMF. It is not afraid of blackmail (old stuff) or the threat of the oligarchs. And she is quite “technocratic” official. Many will say that it will be a “manual override”. Partly – Yes. This, however, is not so much “control” as the strengthening of the struggle for “a common economic and legislative space”. It is the “common rules” need investors.

Yes, Ukraine is likely to be named “world garden”. Climate change is hampering agriculture in the Arab world, China is increasing the consumption of food… It’s “pull” a few “questionable” related factors. First of all, agriculture needs today is not in many workplaces. And here is the new elite should defend the interests of Ukraine. At least in the priority development of animal husbandry and other industries, giving jobs.

On the other hand, abundant work force with high education level and low economic inquiries it is extremely beneficial to the European investors who can move part of the production. In any case, Saakashvili, with its emotionality, nothing will be able to do with limited Premier power. And Poroshenko – the last man in Ukraine, with who he wants to fight (and back). They together studied in the law faculty of Kiev state University in the Soviet years…

Apparently, Peter A., who has a “degree of legitimacy” by results of elections, and shall not be (by law) direct responsibility for the economic situation, but rather respond to the wishes of donors, together with Jaresko, which is completely independent in Ukraine (in the U.S. – hard to say), may well at some time become “successful” tandem that will be able to “run down” and the oligarchs (those not so much to be afraid of threats to Ukrainian as fear of economic threats to the US and the EU), and presumptuous members, who can give the “quiet old age” (political) in the current Parliament.

It is possible that Poroshenko and Jaresko will be able to “hold” until the next parliamentary elections. And there are already can appear and the “new political elite” and to begin a rapprochement with the East European block. Let’s see…

In any case, the fate of premiershi chairs in Ukraine is solved next week.

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