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We are much poorer, as would the power nor assured otherwise

Мы сильно обеднели, как бы власть ни уверяла в обратном

The calculations, according to which most people in Russia live on 25 thousand rubles per month, the expected has caused discontent at the top.

A study of incomes of Russians conducted by the insurance company “Rosgosstrakh-life” and the scientific and technical center “Perspektiva”, was sensational. So we knew that bad live, but that would be so… let me Remind you, the survey was conducted in June and showed that the income of more than 70% of inhabitants of Russia does not exceed 25 thousand rubles a month per person, and 45% of respondents say it is less than 15 thousand rubles.

Naturally, such a picture of abject poverty caused outspoken discontent at the top. Press Secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov, answering the question about what he thinks about the results of this study, firstly, showed that he is already familiar with them, and secondly, suggested that such data was the result of methodological errors.

“The sample is not the biggest, we can say unequivocally what to do based on this sample of insights on the Federal level is incorrect”, — said Peskov. From these words of the representative of the presidential administration, the citizens should probably conclude that if the methodology of this work was all in order, and the overall picture would not look so depressing.

The management of “Rosgosstrakh life” almost immediately responded to these claims from the Kremlin. It is acknowledged that the study was actually conducted on a non-standard method. In particular, the company’s official website noted that, “in the structure of the sample was 28.1% is proportion of respondents aged 60 years. The average size of pensions in Russia in the first quarter of 2020, according to Rosstat amounted to 14924 rubles.”

In addition, the company acknowledged that “a large proportion of respondents from small towns. The majority of respondents live in settlements with a population of 100 thousand people (33,6%), where income may be lower than in cities with a population of several million people. The overall proportion of respondents from Moscow and St. Petersburg amounted to 7.3%”.

Meanwhile, note that the official Rosstat data about the level of incomes of Russians for the month of June in the next month or two is not expected. Such calculations by the Federal statistical office usually appear about once a quarter and, as a rule, not earlier than two to three months after graduation. However, considering that just in the second quarter of the year saw the most significant fall of the Russian economy for many years and, accordingly, incomes of its residents, it cannot be excluded that the results of these studies are not so far from reality.

To understand like it or not, is to compare the survey data with the official (albeit severely lagging behind reality) statistics.

Note that the front of the table entitled “Distribution of population by average per capita money income” is published by Rosstat do once a year and now has data only for a relatively “safe” 2019. The front I have this table called for the reason that it is not consistent with not only reality, but even the data of Rosstat. For example, it follows that the number of those Russians who lived on an incredibly low income “up to 7000 rubles” or “from 7 to 10 000,1 000” per person per month has declined steadily. And Vice versa. The number of those that get quite a decent (according to authorities) money, say, “27 to 45 000,1 000,0 rubles,” and later, on the contrary, has increased even in those years (as, say, in 2016 and 2017), when even according to official statistics, the average income level of the population in Russia declined.

Nevertheless, even this statistic can we make something clear. According to the same Rosstat data for 2019, the number of Russians living on the earnings of 27 thousand rubles and below (the figure is 25 thousand rubles per rostovskoy income statistics not used) was a total of 51.3%. Yes, this is not the 70% that was the result of the research “Rosgosstrakh” and “Prospects,” but that the vast majority of the population.

With regard to methodology, some bias in the direction of the province made in a sensational poll, in my opinion, it is even a plus. The fact that the statistics of Moscow and St. Petersburg, where people on average (about how in reality, see below) more than in small cities, by contrast, distorts the representation of Russian reality.

However, the idea of bathing in the money Moscow also does not reflect the whole story. Two years ago in a typical city hospital, where lay my mom, the nurses told me that they receive 6 thousand roubles a month… I am also familiar with the teachers of additional education, employed in one of the Moscow municipalities. Their salary — 15 thousand rubles. And it is the capital!

With regard to certain Bank research “Rosgosstrakh” in the direction of the elderly (28.1% of the respondents older than 60 years), but on closer examination it is revealed that excessive skew was not here. According to official statistics, in 2020 Russia has a little more than 32 million people over the age of 60, which is about 22% of the total population of the country. 28% and 22% — the difference is not much.

Well, finally, back to what has already been said for the last six months in the Russian economy much has changed and not for the better. Only in the last three months the unemployment rate has increased by 3.5 times, what June 29, said the head of the government of the Russian Federation Mikhail Mishustin. And many of those who have officially retained, earnings greatly reduced.

By the way, these earnings. According to preliminary data of Rosstat, the average per capita incomes of Russians for the first quarter of 2020 (that is, before the sudden drop) made 31245 rubles. How much this figure differs from those 25,000 rubles, 70% of the population that turned on the results of the criticized authorities survey? In my opinion, a rhetorical question.

 

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