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VEB data on the decline of the Russian economy in January, differed with the assessment of the MAYOR

Данные ВЭБа по падению экономики РФ в январе разошлись с оценкой МЭР

Russia’s economy in January 2016 declined by 3.1% yoy compared with a decline of 3.8% in December 2015. These figures are contained in the analytical review of Vnesheconombank (VEB).

“In January 2016 the macroeconomic situation was characterized by a continuation of the decline in economic activity. GDP with the removed seasonality in relation to the previous month decreased by 0.2% vs. decline for 0.1% in December 2015. Annual GDP growth has improved as a result of low base of last year. The decline in GDP in January to the corresponding period of last year amounted to 3.1% against 3.8% in December”, – stated in the message of the Bank.

According to experts of Bank, in January of this year GDP with the exception of seasonal and calendar factors in relation to the previous month decreased by 0.2%, against 0.1% in December 2015.

The Ministry estimated the GDP decline in January at 2.5%.

Earlier this month, international rating Agency Fitch has revised the Outlook on Russia’s GDP. The fall of the Russian GDP in 2016 will be 1.5%, experts say. In December 2015 they predicted the growth of GDP at 0.5%, and in February 2016 – a decrease of one percentage point.

“In Russia, low oil prices reduce profit margins and cause the tightening of fiscal policy, at the same time, high interest rates and declining real wages put pressure on consumption”, – underlined in the message of Fitch.

By the end of 2015 the GDP of Russia, according to the first estimate, amounted in current prices 80 trillion 412,5 bn In the previous year, the country’s economy in the past year decreased by 3.7%, while in 2014 GDP growth amounted to 0.7%.

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