The Russian government demonstrates a rejection of the policies of the West and the fight against the expansion of the United States. However, openly opposing Washington, Moscow is acting on clearly defined scenario for her in which she gradually weakens and loses. According to the latest report of the American non-profit organization RAND, which she has prepared by order of the U.S. Department of defense, Washington beneficial to Russia’s aggressive behavior because it provides the opportunity to put pressure on the weak points and weaken the country both economically and politically without much effort.
- 300-page report, “the Pilfering of Russia. Competition with lucrative positions,” experts of the strategic research center RAND asked the question: “What does Russia have the biggest worries and vulnerabilities?”, “How you can use these anxiety and vulnerability, and to dismember Russia?”, “What are the costs and risks associated with each option, and what are the prospects for success?”.
- Among its key findings, the experts briefly say that the greatest vulnerability of Russia in confronting the US is its relatively small and strongly energy dependent export economy. The main concern of the Russian authorities named the stability and duration of the current political regime.
- Based on this, experts list the most promising measures that could undermine Russia. First, it is replacement of Russian oil and gas market in Europe, which will create “maximum pressure” on oil and gas revenues and will hit domestic and defense budgets. In fact, the U.S. has successfully implemented this part of the plan: the Russian oil exports to Europe have fallen by 40% because of the deal with Saudi Arabia to reduce oil on 2.8 million barrels per day and gas exports fell 21.4% in the first quarter because of declining demand and lost competitive us LNG. In may 2020, the Russian budget received less 70% of oil and gas revenues.
- The second effective measure is to Deplete Russia and remove it from the international arena, the American experts see the involvement of countries in the arms race, particularly the race of the Navy. The United States is also successfully manages – one in four ruble in the defense budget are classified and are devoted to developing new weapons, including missiles and ships. Moreover, every fifth ruble from the national budget of the country is already spending on defense and security. In itself, this deprives the country of investment in human capital and economic development. Slowly comes stagnation, recession and increasingly relevant is situation – guns instead of butter.
- The third measure, which does not require from US any effort – not to prevent Russia from support of the unrecognized republics and quasi-governmental entities on the territory of the former USSR. According to American experts, the support of the DNI, LC, Abkhazia and Transnistria depletes Russia and extends her material resources. Tactical objective of the US in this direction – to force Russia to spend more on dubious grounds.
- In addition, according to a report by RAND, the US is interested in changing the regime of Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus. This will allow Washington to close the West to Russia and take Moscow in a ring of unfriendly regimesin order to influence the policy of the Kremlin and “force for peace”.
- Experts also recommend that Washington not to interfere in the internal political and economic Affairs of Russia. They believe that President Vladimir Putin and his government and without outside help, their decisions and actions weaken the country’s economic potential. To prevent this the U.S. should not.