Ukraine can expect a rollback to the GDP five years ago.
In Ukraine on the background caused by a coronavirus of the crisis has decreased GDP – gross domestic product. Interviewed experts believe: in the second half of the fall of the Ukrainian economy will continue.
“During the quarantine, the industry has lost much less than trade, transport, catering and accommodation, this is confirmed by data from the state Statistics, – the member of the Economic discussion club Oleg Pendzin. – The head of the Cabinet hopes that GDP growth in the second half at least 1%, that is, GDP will fall over the year by about 4-4,5%. And according to the IMF forecast, the fall will be 8.2%, that is still a minus of 2.3-2.5% for the second half”.
Pendzin said that in the area of risk remains the service sector, which gives employment to a large number of people and provides quick turnover of capital.
Another source of income will be lost – this transfer of labor migrants. If in I quarter they transferred to Ukraine about 5 billion dollars in the second quarter to almost anything. The same is expected in the second half. It will hit trade: no buyers – the sellers will suffer. And it’s not only the markets, but larger markets: construction, household appliances, automobiles, etc. Fall in expects the construction, trucking, furniture manufacturing, restaurants and tourist sector.
President of the Ukrainian analytical center Alexander Okhrimenko did not rule out that second quarter GDP will fall by 10%. In his opinion, the fall will occur through trade and the service sector – the quarantine has affected them the most.
“Fear that if the quarantine will continue for another six months, then the fall in GDP can be compared with what it was in 2015 – more than 15%. This will seriously affect the incomes of the population”, – summed up Okhrimenko.
That is, according to experts, this year Ukraine’s economy will not only be able to make up for the loss, but it can wait for a pullback to the GDP five years ago.