The U.S. is ready to choke the world of oil and gas
Experts analyze implications of renewed U.S. oil and gas exports
Mining word minerals
What now the prices depend on oil
After 40 years of acts enacted by Congress of a ban on oil and gas exports the US has resumed the supply of this raw material to other countries. And analysts are already predicting massive consequences, both geopolitical and economic, and the main victims are Russia and Saudi Arabia.
USA for the first time in the last 40 years were sent tankers with a cargo of American oil to buyers in other countries. Among the first American raw materials will get France and the Netherlands. In the coming weeks will also begin deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) produced from shale gas. And, as expected, in the following months the U.S. will significantly expand the volume of exports of oil and gas. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, predict a serious impact on other major world producers of oil and gas, primarily for Russia and Saudi Arabia.
In the IEA predicted the date of recovery in oil prices
According to analysts from the International energy Agency (IEA), the balance between oil production and demand will begin to stabilize in 2017, while demand will exceed supply in 2021
After the oil crisis of 1973, when OPEC, Egypt and Syria refused to supply oil to countries that supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War, the US also ranked among the countries that supported Israel, took the decision to establish a Strategic petroleum reserve. And since 1975 the export of oil and gas in the U.S. almost in its entirety was banned: extracted raw was going to replenish the oil reserve in case of possible future disruptions. For many years American oil and gas company actively lobbied the authorities, insisting on the lifting of the ban of exports. In December 2015, the U.S. Congress adopted a decision to lift this ban.
According to a senior researcher of the analytical center of the Manhattan Institute, Mark mills, the lifting of the ban “radically changes everything”. The political consequences, he said, will not take long, and will be obvious before the US start supplying large volumes of raw materials. “Psychology is as important as the real deal,” explained Mr mills Bloomberg. Transactions of recent years in the world oil market show that buyers are looking for opportunities to diversify its sources of supply of raw materials, and, accordingly, will welcome the appearance in the number of suppliers the USA. “If you are a buyer, say, from South Korea and you offer the same price Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States, your choice will be obvious: the United States. It is the supplier who, as you know, will never threaten you and will not stop the supply, what can be said about Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran,” says Mr. mills.
“Decisions on oil prices are taken by robots in foreign exchange markets”
The crisis in the oil market profitable trading strategies, uncertainty in the market affected by additional supplies from the U.S. and OPEC. This was stated on 10 February, the President of “Rosneft” Igor Sechin, speaking at the international conference of the International Petroleum (IP) Week in London 2016
In the coming weeks the United States will send buyers as well the first shipments of LNG. American manufacturers are positive about their future in terms of possible volume of LNG exports. So, Cheniere Energy is ready to supply about 9 million metric tons of LNG, and this is enough a year to provide energy to Norway and Denmark combined. The abundance of U.S. shale reserves, partly influenced the fall in the prices of oil and gas in the world, according to experts, already severely limited the ability of OPEC countries and Russia use natural resources as a political cudgel, but also puts considerable pressure on the economies of other oil producers, including Venezuela and Nigeria. “A protracted period of low prices for oil and gas will place a heavy burden on Russia in its relations with the West, and, of course, low energy prices are a serious burden for all oil exporters in the world, for government budgets of these countries,” — said the expert of the analytical company Genscape Ted Michael. And the analyst Oppenheimer & Co Fadel Gheit adds: “We definitely will take Russia’s place as the lowest-cost provider. All of these events will have geopolitical and economic implications. For the U.S. and the West is a win-win situation”.