Real wages in Russia in April decreased by 2% in annual terms, follows from the data of Rosstat. Seems to be not so much, but statistics take into account only the official data. Earnings of workers in the informal sector fell much more. Businesses take time to Supplement sagging budgets of companies and earn funds in the new postcoronary conditions. While people Willy-nilly pass on the maximum savings.
April was the worst month for the Russian economy: the country was quarantined. Falling wages is a normal phenomenon in times of crisis. A regime of total economic pause and the isolation of the population naturally led to a drop in earnings. Many enterprises stopped their activities, there is a complete lockdown for the various areas of activity. In the past three months actually zero out the scope of services. Entrepreneurs who lead firms had to cut costs. They were faced with a choice: either massively lay off staff, or to save jobs, but to cut to some extent wages. Ceasing to produce products, some businesses continued to pay people money.
“Reducing wages began immediately after COVID-19 crossed the Russian border. The process will continue in June. By the way, it’s the depth of the drop does not reflect the level of wages and real disposable incomes, as wages constitute about 65% of revenues. Pensions, scholarships, renting apartments is an income, which will fall by 12-15% in the second quarter. Even with the continued recovery of the business and wages for the year, most likely, we will see the minus 6%”, — predicts Director of the Center for market research HSE George Ostapkovich.
Although, according to him, the fall of salaries by 2% — not a disaster. Businesses helped: loaned money, loans at zero rate. “Rosstat gives figures of about 40 million businesses. In the informal sector wage decline is much more serious — 10% and more,” he said.
According to Ostapkovich, once the business economy will work, will increase production and profits. Entrepreneurs interested in raising wages.
In a private business with no revenue and no salary. Even the most honest businessman can’t pay the money to employees if there are no revenues, says the head of IAC “Alpari” Alexander Razuvaev. “Some businessmen in April, sent employees on vacation and saved them 50% of the salary. But very affected service sector, tourism. Although it was hardly the decline of wages in the sectors of a continuous production cycle — the oil and gas industry, mechanical engineering and others. Data for may will be close to April,” he notes. According to analysts, in the third quarter will increase, and by the end of 2020 we will see the dynamics of wages near zero. “If the government wanted to support the growth of wages, it would reduce personal income tax from the current 13% to 10%, — says the expert. — Now Russia’s problem is unemployment, and lost wages waiting for her recovery.” How fast expert predict not taken.
Director at market intelligence portal podelu.ru Lily Fedulina says that not all employers had a large financial “safety cushion” for the payment of salaries, therefore, to retain employees, salaries were reduced, but remained the main staff. “To recover wages in the month of July — early August. It all depends on how soon the restrictions will be lifted in the regions, she said. Businesses take time to Supplement sagging budgets and earn money in the new environment. Faster all salaries will be restored in areas that have successfully implemented udalenku. Is the IT industry, grocery, grocery retail, as well as the company who had major contracts with long implementation period”.
Experts warn that will be slow to recover wages in the fields of tourism, leisure, catering — those that were hardest hit by the crisis. Here wages will grow at best in the first half of 2021 when the restrictions on flights will cease to operate and will start to come in the field of tourism and travel.