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Oil contrary. What commodities will rise in price in Russia in the near future

Нефти вопреки. Какие товары подорожают в России в ближайшее время

In Russia the next coming of the higher prices. The first group of products, which is likely to sharply appreciate, can be a fuel — by increasing excise taxes on petroleum products. However, this is only the beginning. The numbers on the price tags can vary dramatically among products from different sectors of the consumer market.

Main goal of the current leadership of the Bank of Russia calls to fight inflation, targeting which moved a few years ago. For the sake of it being deliberately tight monetary policy, called by many as one of the main causes of the current downturn in the economy. Like it or not, a topic for another conversation. But in any case, to curb the rise in prices at the moment, the financial authorities do not.

In particular, last year inflation reached 13 percent, although the enormous growth of the dollar and the Euro against the ruble was not observed. This year’s planned price increase in seven per cent. Still not over the first quarter, so the forecast for the whole year to do early. But for certain groups of goods the price spike will be bigger than expected, and it will happen in the near future.

Fuel

In late February, the Russian Parliament one day passed a bill raising excise taxes on gasoline and diesel. The idea initially came from the Finance Ministry, trying to scrape together additional money for the budget, which is harder to keep balance because of the collapse in oil prices. When the total shortfall in income in one and a half trillion rubles this measure can bring the budget to 75 billion.

According to the document, the excise rate on petrol from April 1 will increase by two rubles per liter, and on diesel fuel by one ruble per liter.

This is the second increase in excise duties since the beginning of the year. From 1 January the rate of gasoline “Euro-5” has increased by 36.1 per cent (up to 7,53 rubles per liter), for diesel — by 20.3% (to 4.15 rubles). Thus in just three months, the taxation of petroleum products will increase in half to two times.

Нефти вопреки. Какие товары подорожают в России в ближайшее время

Photo: Anar Movsumov / RIA Novosti

However, while the consumer didn’t notice. In January the price of gasoline at gas stations in the country declined by 0.4 percent, and wholesale prices producers is 10 percent. At the same time, as practice shows of previous years, even without raising excise taxes, retail fuel prices after oil fall. Consequently, petrol and diesel will rise in price, which does not deny the power.

So, according to the Deputy Minister of Finance Maxim Oreshkin, the gasoline will rise in price by five percent (with an average annual price of oil of us $ 30 per barrel). The Chairman of the state Duma Sergey Naryshkin admitted that gasoline prices can get ahead of inflation on average around the country and even promised to compensate for this by certain categories of the population. In the end, motorists will have to tighten the belt.

Chocolate

In late February, producers and distributors of a number of popular products was given a written warning trading networks about the increase in selling prices. So, the foreign trade firm “pudlin” has informed its customers that the bars and chocolates Mars, Snickers, Milky Way, Bounty, Dove, “korkunoff” will rise in price approximately for 20 percent. This is due to the rising cost of raw materials, in particular, nuts, cocoa, coconut.

Themselves providers refer exclusively to the devaluation of the ruble. Although it was pretty hard to notice the reduction of prices in the period, when the ruble gained back losses against the dollar. Yes and on the world market in recent months, raw food basically becomes the following, as often happens, the price of oil. The same cocoa, compared to last fall, has lost in value by 15 percent.

Nevertheless, producer prices are rising, and the chances that retailers will not carry this burden on buyers, are not too large. Consumers may have to seek discounts or switch to cheaper goods as it had happened before.

Milk

Although the milk production in the country increased as a result of the introduction of countersanctions against EU countries, USA, Canada and Australia, this key product in the country so far produced are insufficient to meet the needs of all Russians. And modest compared with the demand, the supply of raw materials, particularly milk powder, inevitably pushes the price up.

“Higher prices for dairy products will continue until the end of the first quarter influenced by seasonal factors and the increasing devaluation risks,” said “the Tape.ru” in the National Union of milk producers (“Soyuzmoloko”). According to the forecast, during the year, raw milk prices could rise by five percent.

Snacks

In early February the Deputy of the state Duma from “Fair Russia” Oleg Mikheyev introduced the bill to impose excise taxes on harmful products. According to his proposal, the excise tax on soda should be 15 rubles, and for chips — 12 rubles per pack. The idea was supported by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of health, the Ministry of agriculture and the Ministry of industry and trade. Last, the office proposed to add to the range of burgers.

It was opposed by the FAS and the Association of producers of soft drinks. In their view, such a decision would deprive consumers of a choice between cheaper and more expensive goods. Not to mention the loss of many jobs.

Нефти вопреки. Какие товары подорожают в России в ближайшее время

Photo: Alexander Kryazhev / RIA Novosti

The main difficulty for the promotion of the law — the promise made by President Vladimir Putin in late 2014. It was about the fact that taxes in Russia should not rise over the next four years. If the draft law is adopted, it could lead to higher prices on cheap snacks at 10-20 percent in addition to the price increase, which occurred due to the growth of the dollar. Budget this will bring relatively small — about 600 million rubles.

Vegetables and fruits

The General Director of branch analytical Agency FruitNews Irina Koziy said “the Tape.ru” that in the near future will rise in price practically all kinds of fruits and vegetables (except products of greenhouse production of cucumbers and tomatoes). There are two reasons.

First — the negative dynamics of the ruble in January 2016. “As a rule, changes in exchange rates affect the retail costs of imported fruits and vegetables with a lag of two months. Hence, the result of a sharp fall of the ruble in January we will see on the price tags in the shops in March”, — says the expert.

Second — growth related costs. According to Irina Koziy, spring to the cost of fruits and vegetables increase spending on storage of crop harvested in the fall. “As for fruit from the southern hemisphere, which reach the market in the spring months, there is a significant impact on the retail price have shipping costs. After all, apples, pears and other fruits of the spring harvest has to travel half the world to get on the table of the Russian consumer,” she says and adds that the peak value of the major fruits and vegetables of spring and early summer. From July to October, prices will fall.

Flowers

Here the rise in price is also likely to be seasonal. It is expected that in the first decade of March prices for flowers in Russia traditionally grow up, even though delivery will increase in 2-2,5 times. Patriotic colors will get higher retail price by 30-35 percent, and imports even more — due payments in foreign currency. Meanwhile the difference in price from the manufacturers and retailers differs sometimes three times.

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