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Home / policy / Mr Yankelevich: “Love comes suddenly”, or About the premises of the Sunni-Israeli sblizheniia

Mr Yankelevich: “Love comes suddenly”, or About the premises of the Sunni-Israeli sblizheniia

Vladimir Yankelevich

Владимир Янкелевич: «Любовь нечаянно нагрянет», или О предпосылках суннито-израильского сближениия

“There was no happiness, Yes the misfortune has helped”
Russian folk saying

“!זה מה שיש, ואנחנו ננצח” —
“It is what it is and we will win!”
Saying the Israeli army

Policy, standing at the helm of the States, usually they say that their countries are given to them and accepted by the population objectives. Maybe they believe it, perhaps disingenuous, just such a work… However how to build a rational plan of action, when at the same time on the same site their plans of friends and enemies, play the game, the rules of which each designates for himself, and all the time unpredictable changes? The participants of this game very often leave aside rational decisions and are guided by the incomprehensible to other irrational motives.

“… the political events are the result of a bizarre combination of rational calculations in their understanding of each parties ‘ interests and the perceived interests friends, partners, opponents and enemies (and the classification of “who is who in relation to me” everyone has his own) and irrational phobias, collective myths and cockroaches in the minds… that some minds, in the same system of values seems to be self-destructive idiocy, in other minds, in other axiomatics seems perfectly rational, thoughtful, wise and far-sighted policy…”
From the review on the article “the Talent of foresight, or once More about love to a forgotten rake”

And so it turns out that the desired and realistically achievable goals generally coincide extremely seldom, and in our complicated region, as it seems, never…

Here is France, not being able to handle the terrorists on its territory, decided to appease their ultimatum to Israel: either peace process, or recognize Palestine… Pantajali, achieved nothing and replaced the head of the Foreign Ministry, Fabius Marc Ayrault. Then the blackmail together with Fabius was removed from the agenda.

Meanwhile, according to The Wall Street Journal, the White House decided to decorate the end of the tenure of Barack Obama’s success in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In General, the outgoing Obama to launch new initiatives is unlikely, we need to think how not to worsen the position of the Democratic party before the election, but when there is nothing to do, are taken for “great things.”

However, progress in the middle East at the White House there, though not quite those anticipated. Well, that’s how it usually. And they will dwell upon it.

The most important event (not a success), which influenced the alignment of forces in the region, was the “Agreement on Iran’s nuclear program”. In this agreement, “Great Peacemakers” left intact Iran’s program of improving the means of delivery of nuclear weapons and opened access to the frozen billions. Naturally, without these billions, it was difficult to maintain all proxy terrorists and to conduct missile tests, has now become a lot easier.

Washington immediately stated that the missile tests Iran are not a violation of the Vienna agreements to stop its nuclear program in exchange for lifting of economic sanctions. That is, first, a demand Iran has agreed to remove the paragraphs about missile tests from “Agreement,” well, outplayed Iran, Western negotiators — and now made this failure easy argument. Actually it is well known that the nuclear programme that is the subject of the Agreement consists of two main components — the actual nuclear bombs and means of delivery, but need to do a beautiful face on a disastrous foreign policy. Iran has tested missiles with a range of 2,000 km from the U.S. will not fly, and to Israel and Saudi Arabia easily. Why should the US bother?

What really worries, it is possible to see from American news reports CNN. There are a lot of things: elections 2016, a gas explosion in Seattle, the scandal with the doping M. Sharapova and… no sign of the missile tests of Iran. This Is America! She has a periphery world.

And Iran, our regional “bad boy”, there is a fairly actively. In February the Australian Navy detained in the ocean a merchant ship with a cargo of weapons. The ship was from Iran, and all crew members were Iranians. The ship was supposed to deliver the weapons to the Houthis in Yemen. Then there is Iranian support for its proxies and the fueling of regional conflicts has not decreased.

In such circumstances, a certain rapprochement between the US and Iran has caused a predictable result. The Sunni monarchies, it became clear that to rely on the protection of the USA is dangerous, you need to defend yourself, to resist Iran’s expansion.

For beginning, there was an “Islamic military Alliance against terrorism” with Saudi Arabia in the form of the mover of the new structure. Naturally, such an initiative has caused well-founded doubts. Anything at the negotiating table massdot Arab countries!

But the situation has been developing over the Arabian Peninsula sounded “Nordic thunder” — (“Northern Thunder”) — 18-day military exercises combat organize cooperation between various combined armed forces of more than 20 Arab and Islamic countries. Involved more than 350 thousand troops, 2500 combat aircraft, 20 tanks and 460 thousand helicopters, units of air defense. Moreover, the country put its most capable forces and the most powerful equipment, including the F16 and Typhoon jet fighters, the Apache helicopters and the AWACS AWACS system. Interestingly, the US and other Western powers to take part in the exercises were not invited.

Владимир Янкелевич: «Любовь нечаянно нагрянет», или О предпосылках суннито-израильского сближениия

The tank units in the UAE military exercise “Northern thunder” in Saudi Arabia

These are the largest and most important military exercises in the region’s history were the first real actions of the “Islamic military Alliance against terrorism.” Riyadh said that “Northern thunder” demonstrates the commitment of the participating States to security and stability in the region. About the fact that these teachings are quite clear message to Iran, demonstrating the seriousness of Arab States, Riyadh, Tehran kept silent.

The fact that such exercises suggests that the participating countries fully agree with the vision of Saudi Arabia on ways to resolve problems in the region, and this is clearly not the path, where it is stated that “a military solution to the problem”.

If the war in Syria will end the preservation of the Assad regime, Iran and Hezbollah there will be a dominant force for years to come. This scenario, thanks to the support of Russia is quite real. But he — and most unacceptable to the Sunni countries, Saudi Arabia and Turkey want to avoid at all costs.

To prevent such a development may military intervention in the fighting in Syria. When a country gathers forces for an invasion, in a standard way the operations cover such training are just military exercises. “Northern thunder” for this purpose is well suited.

Владимир Янкелевич: «Любовь нечаянно нагрянет», или О предпосылках суннито-израильского сближениия

Representatives of Arab and Muslim countries participating in the exercises

To have armed forces invasion is a necessary but not sufficient condition. Actions in Syria require complex logistics, the participation of other countries. To move troops from Saudi Arabia to Syria either through Jordan or by sea to Turkey and then on to Syria. But we need to ensure their protection, material and technical supply, to ensure the supply of munitions, which becomes challenging when maintaining for a long period of fighting away from its territory.

In addition, the most important factor is the quality of the armed forces. And if the equipment the Saudi army with modern weapons well enough known, about the qualifications of the military is little known. But to assume that their opponent is not worth much more competent.

Anyway, if the Iranians will be strengthened in Syria, to fight the Saudis still have, but only in the worst conditions and, quite possibly, on its territory, so the military action against the Assad regime is quite likely.

But not a single military operation done.

The strongest strike against Iran Saudi Arabia has caused, acknowledging Hezbollah and affiliated structures of terrorist organizations and their leaders terrorists. Hezbollah has a long history of subversive and sabotage activities in the Gulf countries. It began not today and not today is over. For example, in 1985 attempted assassination of Emir of Kuwait Sheikh Jaber al-Ahmad al-Sabah, by detonation of a car. There are many such examples, the Arab countries a lot of reasons to hate Hizbollah and its Iranian backers. With the help of agents of Hezbollah, Iran based on Shiite groups, destabilizing the situation in the Gulf, support of Yemeni Houthis, arranges terrorist attacks and recruiting local youth into the ranks of extremists.

Yes, it was a strong step to recognize the Hezbollah and all of its political, military leaders terrorists, but why it took so long?

In General, it is not a secret. Such non-military way Saudi Arabia joined the Syrian war. The Saudis withdrew a package of financial assistance to Lebanon at a cost of four billion dollars. The damage is quite comparable with military operations. In addition, Saudi Arabia imposes sanctions against individuals and legal entities for the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah. Lebanon will have to think and realize that Hezbollah cost him.

Tehran and Hezbollah called GCC countries helpers of the Zionists that prevent to defend the rights of the people of Palestine. Apparently hoping to muddle Arab street. The street remained indifferent, excited only by the Israeli Communist and Arab “Balad”.

This is a direct statement in defense of the enemy Israel Israeli marginals is to be expected. Perhaps they will help you understand excessively tolerant Israeli Themis the difference between freedom of speech and hostile anti-state activities.

Of course, in Arab countries there are radical elements for whom hatred of Israel is the meaning of life, but this factor is Sunni rulers already not taken into account. The king of Bahrain has explicitly stated about the necessity of the establishment of diplomatic relations with Jerusalem. International analysts in one voice say that today the Arab countries have changed their attitude toward Israel thanks to Iran with his plans of building a “Shiite Crescent”.

So, for Israel, the time has come recognition of the Arab world? What are unable to help the six-day war, to help the Iranian threat?

It would appear so. Israel is the strongest state in the region, he is able alone to give a real rebuff to Iranian aggression. Such potential allies are not scattered.

No less important is the significance of Israel in the fight against the terrorists of Hezbollah. Today, with the full support of Arab countries, these terrorists can and must be destroyed.

An editorial in the Iranian site www.presstv.ir it is alleged that U.S. officials, whose names are not mentioned, warned Beirut: the tel Aviv regime plans to launch a new war against Lebanon. Source of information Americans named Israeli officials allegedly informed the American colleagues on the interest of the Israeli attack on Lebanon in light of the Saudi strategic shift in policy.

Was it or was not, a fact is real or usual “duck”, unknown, Iranians say that it is profitable, but the fact is that the GCC and Israel have serious common interests. They, as we, don’t want the strengthening of radical Islamists in the region need stability and border security. They don’t want political turmoil, so the cooperation between us and the Arab world is quite possible.

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