The situation in the middle East is reminiscent of a crucial period of world war II, with the caveat that the main evil is not a country or a society, fallen into a nationalist frenzy, but protopselaphinae education, professing no less destructive misanthropic ideology than fascism, and midwives.
A number of countries are trying to use is banned in Russia IG to their advantage – hence the power vacuum that created a terrorist breeding ground. Global economic developments, the struggle for oil-rich regions and transport paths exacerbate tensions. Some want to retain a dominant position, others to take their share.
Russia and Syria, as well as a few allies, with a total of less potential (and military, and economic), we have to be very persistent, resourceful, prepared to asymmetric responses. You need to balance on the edge, so as not to disrupt human civilization into the abyss of world war, by the stupidity and greed of the hegemon and its vassals.
The actors of the second front
A significant success of the Russian space forces and the Syrian army in Aleppo, fearing to be late to the pie forcing the allies to rush the opening of the second and third fronts against ISIS – this is how we can understand the preparatory activities of Turkey and a public statement by Saudi Arabia’s intention to enter into Syria army.
It is logical to assume that not only situational, but also medium-term military-political Alliance of the Saudis and “pan” with a view to its partition. Is assumed in the integration of infrastructure, data exchange, use of military bases. The fact that Saudi Arabia sent troops and fighter jets to a military base “Incirlik” in Turkey, says about a possible ground invasion in the coming month.
Otherwise both countries will lose their investments in the destabilization of Syria and the credibility of the neighbors. Exacerbated the internal problems of Saudi Arabia and Turkey, both political and economic. Without “small victorious war” of the elite and the army prefer to change the political elite.
It is worth noting that the negotiations on Syria in Munich, as well as the fact that they took place, was the result of military successes of Bashar al-Assad, losses in manpower, equipment and loss of territories “anti-government” block, in which we include not only ISIS, “An-Nusra”, and other “suit” the opposition of various degrees of moderation, not gone to dialogue with the official authorities.
Middle Eastern players, USA at the head of the mill Western countries struggling will try to impose “Minsk” format of the truce, diplomatic action to weaken the success of the Syrian government and army, to allow to accumulate power and hand over weapons to Pro-Western rebel groups, in extreme cases – to form a shock group of forces of the KSA and Turkey for a possible ground operation under the pretext of “humanitarian aid”. Although four years these countries were silent when Islamists took in the siege of whole cities with tens of thousands of civilians, imposed slavery, mass executions among the population.
In this logic fit the statements of U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry in an interview with Orient TV that if Assad fails to fulfil its obligations under the ceasefire and the Iranians and the Russians forced him to do this, members of the international community, not left to sit idly by and watch the situation.
In fact, Damascus and Moscow put forward the ultimatum. Or to stop the offensive and to “negotiate” in the current environment, with obvious followed by the addition of new and “push-UPS” of positions in the logic “Minsk” or “Munich agreement”. Or will a ground operation with the obligatory attacks on government forces and Russian.
History repeats itself
We all remember the price of victory in the great Patriotic war went to the Soviet Union, alone peremilovskaya over 70 percent of the combat resource Axis. And how the countries of anti-Hitler coalition of all the forces delayed the opening of the Western front. In the arena they appeared only in June 1944, when it was clear that the USSR have to cope with Nazi Germany – a month earlier or later to capture your share and prevent the spread of Soviet influence in the whole of Europe.
ISIS now occupies a position similar to the aspirations of Hitler in 1945, relying on the conflict and a possible military clash between Russia and the Western coalition (including Turkey and Saudi Arabia). For a pseudo-terrorist this is a historic opportunity: to use the conflict between countries in order to fully acquire political subjectivity and to become an independent factor on the world stage. Until recently we perceived it only as the derivative of a power vacuum in the middle East or the fruit of a failed political and genetic experiment that produced a monster.
A nightmare of Washington
The main fear of the US is to remain out of work. States already has lost most of the credibility of the middle Eastern vassals that occasionally already looking toward the opposite camp.
The restoration of Bashar al-Assad by military forces full control over the territory of Syria means for the state Department’s final “loss of face”, as they say in the East. It’s not just political death for a number of public figures, but also undermining American military and political superiority. Close to the collapse of the dollar pyramid (the Saudis are the main investors in the American economy and holders of US government debt).
Turns out that Assad, with Russian support (not even the Soviet Union with its powerful military and ideological machine) stood against overseas Empire, its numerous resources and opportunities. A similar example can easily become contagious.
Zombies with ambition
Opponents of our country will try by all means to delay the settlement of the Syrian crisis in the hope that the Caliphate will come to their senses and start a new winning streak on the Middle East.
The defeat of Russia in Syria to the result of limited regional conflict is beneficial to Erdogan and Turkey to strengthen the Islamist regime, registration of claims to Crimea and other “Imperial ambitions”.
In the collapse of our country are interested and USA – at least in a demonstrative punishment for something that challenged their hegemony.
Just the failure or withdrawal of Russia from Syria while favorable and Saudi Arabia with the possible exception of a competitor of the world’s oil suppliers and possibly sanctions the ban on the trade of hydrocarbons with the West.
The subsequent defeat of Islamic state forces from the coalition in Syria and Iraq is beneficial to him as ideology, and supranational extremist ideas. First, you will see the halo of the martyrs who fought for a cause against “the innumerable hordes of crusaders.” Second, this network structure, the same mythical Hydra, which can grow in a different civilizational or religious fault where there is appropriate nutritional conditions. Thirdly, the winning coalition is interested in further weakening and decline of Russia – backing the terrorists will be proposed humanitarian corridors, terminating in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Here and planned is the revival of the IG 2.0 in a more stable, cruel and focused on the destruction of the Russian version. With the possibility of attack by China, which is already experiencing difficulties with their own separatists and Islamists.
As the situation develops in a negative way, despite the military successes of the Russian-Syrian forces. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that his country intends to protect Aleppo and return to historical debt “brothers”, which in the First world defended the Turkish city.
This is already an open call to war, which turned the head of many frostbitten nationalists. “At the moment the US, Europe, Russia, Israel and Iran created anti-Muslim Union” – is echoed by their leaders one of the Turkish radicals Alper tan the article “the army of Islam against the crusaders and the Zionists” in Stratejik Dusunce Enstitusu from 10 February.
The drug of nationalism is very heavy in its consequences. And usually leads to death of the political subject. In Turkey, unfortunately, does not learn from mistakes of Ukraine, dooming themselves to become as zombie-acceptor, eating the finances of the European Union to deter refugees.
There is no turning back
What to do Russia and Syria in the conditions of limited time and space? You have to be ready to enlargement of bets and the game on the rise, creating a more asymmetrical responses and challenges to his opponents. The transition of small-size missile ship “Green Dol” with CU “Caliber” to the shores of Syria – one of such steps, but insufficient to reflect the full Saudita-Turkish aggression.
The legitimate government in Damascus must make an unambiguous statement: the presence of any foreign troops on the territory of the country without the consent or mandate of the UN security Council is an act of aggression and Declaration of war. This is the casus Belli.
At the same time, classic political-military Pact of Syria and Russia on joint protection against attack. He will significantly strengthen the stability of the Assad regime, the morale of the government army, would lend greater legitimacy to the actions of the Armed Forces, later will give certain advantages in the economy and in the deployment of military bases.
The feasibility of inclusion in the Covenant in other countries, that Iran is open to question. But Russian diplomacy will need to be literally out of his skin to get to the confrontation to provide at least a dialogue between Iran and Israel, between which there are fundamental, ontological contradictions. The normalization of relations between the two countries will significantly strengthen Russia’s position, will affect the normalization of the situation in the region in parallel with the resolution of the Syrian crisis.
At the same time necessary to seek a political solution that allows the U.S. and its allies to exit with minimal losses, keeping the person out of the trap they fell into.
A speedy military victory of the government troops in Syria is a natural condition for the cessation of all provocations and attempts of aggression by middle Eastern neighbors.
Here you need not to waste your time on short-term political “truce” and “negotiations”, which are profitable only to enemies, but systematically and purposefully squeeze the terrorist group. The US itself will not go on a military operation, relying on its proxies Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Including to test the military potential of Russia. With the defeat of Erdogan and the Saudis the United States retains the position of “peacemaker”. Otherwise, Russia will put forward ultimatums, among others – in regard to its internal devices assigned to the new sanctions and “reparations” in favor of the winners.
Russia has been in Syria for a reason and turning back we have.