“In politics, nothing happens by accident. If something happened, as it was intended” (Roosevelt)
In 2000 Vladimir Putin, then still a relatively young and promising politician, with all sincerity said, referring to the Federal Assembly: “Persists the raw material orientation of the economy. Budget revenues largely depend on the dynamics of world energy prices. We are losing competition in the global market, more and more oriented to the innovation sector, the new economy of knowledge and technology”.
For the past 20 years of his reign (Dmitry Medvedev is not considered) the President kept coming back to this issue, saying that dependence on raw materials persists, the problems are accumulated in the competition losing, you need something to do. Effective managers have done nothing in this direction, but the help came from not waiting for — from pandemic COVID-19. The virus did not understand how the economy of a sovereign, and what is not, and the collapse of everything what could reach, and today the recovery of Russia from petroleum dependence has become even more painful but necessary than yesterday.
One of the mantras about “we need to do something, that something must be done” is not enough, because as you cleverly put it the head “Rosnano” Mr. Chubais: “There is a famous cowboy saying: if the horse died, it is necessary to get off. Naftogaz today provides 20% of GDP, 40% of the budget and 60% of exports. It is the backbone (of the economy). And we got not a bell, and some kind of alarm bell”, — said Chubais. “The rich become slightly less rich, the middle class will be a little smaller, but the poor will become very poor. And that’s the hardest part of the whole story,” he sad Chubais. In other words, to pay for a gross strategic miscalculation of the ruling elite, manic looped on the oil and gas industry, those who still have the shirt, take off the judges, so that the rich remained rich, only “slightly less”, and one shirt and no, that will skin.
What Chubais, the author of the famous “What are you worried about these people? Well, thirty million will die. They do not fit into the market. Don’t think about it — new grow” suddenly sad fate of Russian poor, very little hard to believe. But he wasn’t wrong in the fact that Russia in recent years trying to ride not just on a dead horse, and if you believe the chamber, even the Ghost of a dead horse, which would for another twenty years talented managers do not get down if they are not dropped evil kovid.
This is the chamber in the status report of the mineral resource base of the country in 2015-19, he announced that a significant portion of oil and gas reserves in Russia, which report commodity companies which are placed on the state balance, not confirmed as a result of revaluation, exploration and production. Oil and gas companies tend to overestimate the explored deposits, reporting on the state of natural resources.
On average, each year Russia writes off from the state balance was “fake” reserves of hydrocarbons to almost the same extent which annually drains from the bowels. In sum, from 2016, was recognized as not existing in reality, the reserves of oil and condensate at 2,278 billion tons, which is almost five annual volumes of extraction. Over the same period for non-verification had to be written off 6,041 trillion cubic meters of gas — more than nine annual production volumes. Where’s the surprise? Recently “Gazprom” has done absolutely enchanting thing: he sold himself gas at $ 1 billion, and not for the first time, just to report on the implementation plan for exports.
Experts, analysts, economists try to calculate and predict, but how to do it with a high degree of reliability, if the life-giving Russian hydrocarbons in large part exist only in reports and company reports that their top managers pay big bonuses?
But back to our “dead horses”. While the rest of the world somehow, but kept natural and continuous development, the Russian economy is recovering after the crisis of 1990-ies, at the same time writhed on oil and gas needle, becoming fatally vulnerable to external factors and actually losing sovereignty. The famous “fat years” in large part was a product of the oil and gas prices, no managers, nothing ruled, lived without straining in pleasure, just more expensive oil-mother, which was tightly screwed by the economy. And now over Lafayette and Mr. Chubais howled, otpevaya “dead horse”.
Speaking of the rest of the world. Is Putin’s Russia a wonderful partner, “a great power. It’s probably the only superpower. We accept it”. There is also a pandemic of the past as an ice rink in almost all sectors of the economy, including oil and gas touched. Only the us, effective managers do not incendiary speeches in Congress for years was pushing about “something to do”, and since may 2011, without waiting for epidemics and other force majeure started the procedure of restructuring of its own and global energy market, that they quite succeeded, you just have to remember how they easily bent OPEC+ themselves while remaining on the sidelines and watching the “battle of ranges”.
A few years ago, before any pandemics Professor S. S. Sulakshin publicly stated: “Deeply flawed Putin’s position, which he publicly found on the pricing mechanisms of oil (supposedly based on supply and demand) today, apparently tipped to become absolutely transparent mechanism of artificial financial manipulation of the price of oil. Doing this, of course, the strategists of the United States of America, using large shunting financial resources, an ad hoc network, shunting organizations, drawing those resources from the bottomless trunk of the Federal reserve system. Even the Director of the foreign intelligence Service Mikhail Fradkov somehow confirmed that on the currency markets (this is the analogue of the exchanges that make up the price of oil) wielded by foreign speculators.
15 years mutilated the Russian economy collapses and deformed its structure, seized huge amounts (100 billion rubles), the ruble money supply from circulation, they drove her into financial dependence on foreign loans with the fabulous sums of money (700 billion dollars) and ran beyond the sovereignty and security of the country, on the use of “that” forged weapons. It is the sanctions, closing working capital and investment financing of the economic mechanism of Russia. It is reset in oil prices, that is, the blow to the revenues of the state budget and throughout the supply chain multiplier of the economic mechanism of Russia”.
Who Stepan is talking and who was listening? Now the effective managers we declare that “the horse died, tail oblez”, and some even wonder, “was there a horse?” During the reign of Putin and Co. can not what to get off the needle, and generally anything to do anyway to prepare for any pandemics, disasters and economic crises. Just the expression “to be at the helm of” Putin’s guys, apparently produced from the word “feeding”, only fed, they are not Russia, not its sovereignty, not its economy, not even the oil and gas industry, and ourselves.
The forecast, which did then S. S. Sulakshin, was not very comforting, probably because Stepan is a scientist and a politician, not a Comforter and not a mourner in “a dead horse” as some: “Will be next. Sovereign wealth funds will be spent. The budget will be cut so that the government will be helpless in his defense and social sectors. The drop in the standard of living of the population will return, finally, the relationship between the level and credibility of the government — the rating authority. Political protectzia will increase. It will warm up in the orange channels from the West, wetland polygons within Russia and from the offices of the fifth column in the ruling elite. Deregulation of domestic Finance will increase. Strangulation of the economic mechanism of reproduction in Russia will develop.
How will it end? According to the plans of those whose plans we reconstruct the country should fall apart. They have a big task to keep her from the chaos in which dangerous things like nuclear warheads and other dangerous items and substances will spread on the terrorist hands. Therefore they are very cautious, carefully. But the reconstructed plan “to Destroy and weaken the country!” does not change”.
The question is whether there is now in Russia, should not be who can successfully oppose the plans of potential enemies, both external and internal. And are we willing — not Putin, Chubais, Kudrin, they already had time and opportunity to showcase their “talent and professionalism”, and we, the people, to unite around such a plan to jointly implement it. Or will remain indifferent and helpless observers of the robbery, mayhem and chaos in our country?
Some skeptics accuse slain, and a team of his supporters, saying, “you only criticize and do nothing.” Yes it really? And the Program of transformation of Russia “Real socialism” and the draft of the new Constitution and Manifesto of the future of humanity, and the doctrine and Packages of legislative initiatives is not the same as scientifically based and an elaborate plan to break the deadlock, which is now so urgently needed, in order to save Russia from the encroachments of all “Western partners” and collaborators? Better to ask your beloved leader, that he did twenty years of his reign, but talking about “something to do”.
Or the court of auditors, which suddenly saw the light (a miracle happened, nothing else) and was horrified that oil and gas companies from 2016 (at least, and there as know) years doing a hell of a note.
However, all of these efficient gentlemen did, the second question, too much they have already done this, what urgently needs to get out — now if I can figure out what to do for all of us.
First, we must realize that our Motherland is in danger, even some Chubais has not heard the bell, and the alarm bell, and we are not stupid Chubais, you can all see, hear and understand. The second is to understand the proposed country team supporters S. sulakshina Big Project of rebuilding Russia, aimed at the future revival of the sovereign, fair, moral, labor, narodovlastnoy state. The third — to find each other and unite around “the New strategy successful Russia.” Well, the fourth — peacefully and legally, but publicly, unanimously and strongly ask Mr. Putin and his clique out, while the whole country by their efforts finally turned into the graveyard “dead horses”.