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80 in March. Ruble predicted a new fall

With such a forecast made by “Alfa-Bank”, its analysts suggest that the dollar in March may reach the mark of 80
80 уже в марте. Рублю предсказали новое падениеPhoto: Grigory Sobchenko/BFM.EN

According to experts, the oil prices could soon fall to 35-36 per barrel. The reason is that speculators may want to take profits. However, by the summer of black gold again will rise in price — up to 44 dollars for barrel.

That will strengthen the ruble to the level in 64-55 for a dollar? To comment on the forecast we asked the economist for Russia and CIS of investment company “Renaissance capital” Oleg Kuzmin.

80 уже в марте. Рублю предсказали новое падениеOleg Kuzmin

economist for Russia and CIS investment company “Renaissance Capital”

“It is difficult to predict unambiguously the dynamics of the ruble in the near future. First, the dynamics of the ruble will be determined by market conditions and world commodity markets, but they are still very volatile. If at the end of last year the oil drop to such low levels — less than $ 30 per barrel — which has happened, in fact the market was not expected, the same way nobody expected, probably in January of this rapid recovery in oil prices to 40 dollars per barrel. In General, we believe that at present the ruble is fairly valued at current oil prices. As a base forecast, we believe that this year the average ruble exchange rate for the year could be at the level of 65 rubles per dollar, with an average of about 45 dollars per barrel”.

 

The negative Outlook not only in “alpha Bank”. Sberbank CIB analysts write that soon the price of oil can be adjusted to the level of 38 dollars per barrel. This will lead to the fall of the ruble to 80-82-x per dollar, the experts conclude. Do you agree with these predictions? The question we addressed to chief economist PF “Capital” Eugene Nadorshin.

80 уже в марте. Рублю предсказали новое падениеEvgeny Nadorshin

chief economist at PF Capital

“Overall, expect somewhere in the second half of March, the rouble can start to decrease, and the reasons for this I see two. The first is quite weak, a possible reduction in rates by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation that are unlikely to have a very strong influence on the rate of the national currency, but can affect it, and of course, in the loosening direction. And the second point, more important is, most likely, the failure or limited success of negotiations concerning the stabilization of oil production volumes, which should pass in Russia, in the second half of March. In my understanding, very little chance that they will bring some significant result. And well, if you ever manage to produce some overall plan press release, since no plans of stabilization or decline in production is not incorporated, as far as I know, neither corporate plans of the Russian business, nor in the plans of most companies of the countries-exporters of oil, with which the Russian authorities want on some issues of stabilization of production to negotiate.”

All opinions

However, while stock prices reflect optimism. Oil is rising, and the ruble, the dollar on Friday took down the mark of 70.

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